As the former government was overthrown in early December 2024, ISIL reportedly utilised the power vacuum to attack former government forces,456 expanding its presence in Homs and Hama governorates into areas of the Syrian desert vacated by Assad’s forces.457 The UN Secretary-General reported that the Syrian desert region was still a ‘centre for external operational planning’ for ISIL and remained crucial for its operations.458 According to a Kurdish officer, ISIL managed to seize large amounts of weapons left by former government troops.459 Meanwhile, the US expanded its airstrikes on ISIL camps and operatives, likely weakening the group.460 The US Defense Intelligence Agency reported for the time period October to December 2024, that ISIL ‘had shown no significant improvement in operational capabilities or attack sophistication’ in Syria, the group’s capabilities having reportedly been diminished due to targeted strikes and the capture or killing of many ISIL leaders.461
During the reference period, ISIL operations were mainly recorded in SDF-held areas,462 with SOHR documenting 17 ISIL operations for the month of January 2025.463 The group’s operations involved ISIL cells attacking SDF patrols464 and checkpoints,465 with some of these attacks involving IEDs,466 hand grenades467 and rocket-propelled grenades (RPG).468 On 11 January 2025, the intelligence agency of the Transitional Administration469 stated that a bombing planned by ISIL at the Shia Sayyida Zaynab shrine near Damascus had been foiled.470
According to assessments made by British intelligence, the weakening of the SDF might lead to ISIL seizing an opportunity to facilitate the escape of about 9 000 ISIL members in SDF custody, while the group already had about 2 000 active members staging a resurgence on the ground.471 The SDF reported to have about 10 000 ISIL fighters in their custody, further stating that, since the fall of Assad’s government, ISIL had already attempted two attacks on prisons in order to free its members.472
Christoph Reuter, journalist for the German news magazine Der Spiegel, in mid-February filed a report on ISIL activities in areas under control of the Transitional Administration, after having traversed the Syrian desert. Statements received from soldiers stationed in the area as well as some remaining locals indicated that they perceived no ISIL activity, rather there were signs that former government soldiers as well as criminals had used ISIL disguises when perpetrating attacks against rival groups as well as civilians. A local journalist mentioned that many ISIL operatives have crossed the Euphrates into SDF-held territories.473
- 456
International Crisis Group, Crisis Watch – Syria: November 2024 – February 2025, n.d., url
- 457
Waters, G., ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency, Special Edition, 27 January 2025, url
- 458
UNSG, Twentieth report of the Secretary-General on the threat posed by ISIL (Da’esh) to international peace and security and the range of United Nations efforts in support of Member States in countering the threat, S/2025/72, 31 January 2025, url, para.6
- 459
Reuters, Exclusive: Syrian Kurdish forces oppose handing jihadist jails to Islamist rulers, 21 January 2025, url
- 460
Waters, G., ISIS Redux: The Central Syria Insurgency, Special Edition, 27 January 2025, url
- 461
USDOD, Operation Inherent Resolve And Other U.S. Government Activities Related to Iraq & Syria: Lead Inspector General Report to the United States Congress October 1, 2024 – December 31, 2024, 19 February 2025, url, p. 11
- 462
Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url; SOHR, ISIS resurgence | Member of ISIS cell killed and another injured in two separate attacks in Al-Hasakah countryside, 21 January 2025, url
- 463
SOHR, IED attack | ISIS members attack military vehicle of Self-Defence in Deir Ezzor countryside, 2 February 2025, url
- 464
SOHR, IED attack | ISIS members attack military vehicle of Self-Defence in Deir Ezzor countryside, 2 February 2025, url; Etana, Syria Update #16: 3 February, 1 February 2025, url; SOHR, ISIS resurgence | Members of ISIS clash with members of “Asayish” in Al-Hasakah, 26 January 2025, url
- 465
SOHR, Al-Hasakah | Member of Asayish Forces killed in ISIS attack on security checkpoint, 29 January 2025, url; SOHR, Sneak attack | ISIS cells clash with Internal Security Forces in Al-Hasakah, 20 January 2025, url
- 466
SOHR, IED attack | ISIS members attack military vehicle of Self-Defence in Deir Ezzor countryside, 2 February 2025, url; SOHR, IED attack | ISIS kills member of 25th Division and injures four others in Syrian desert, 21 November 2024, url
- 467
SOHR, ISIS resurgence | Members of ISIS clash with members of “Asayish” in Al-Hasakah, 26 January 2025, url; Lister, C., Syria Weekly: Dec 30 2024 -Jan 7, 2025, 7 January 2025, url
- 468
Lister, C., Syria Weekly: Dec 30 2024 -Jan 7, 2025, 7 January 2025, url; ANHA, 2 fighters martyred in ISIS attacks in Deir ez-Zor, 27 December 2024, url
- 469
Al Jazeera, Syrian intelligence says it thwarted ISIL attempt to blow up Shia shrine, 11 January 2025, url
- 470
Al Jazeera, Syrian intelligence says it thwarted ISIL attempt to blow up Shia shrine, 11 January 2025, url; Etana, Syria Update #14: 17 January, 16 January 2025, url
- 471
Guardian (The), IS fighters in Syria could break free amid Trump aid cut, terrorism expert warns, 28 January 2025, url
- 472
Reuters, Exclusive: Syrian Kurdish forces oppose handing jihadist jails to Islamist rulers, 21 January 2025, url
- 473
Reuter, C., The Phantom Terrorists - Searching for Islamic State in Syria, Der Spiegel, 12 February 2025, url